二、2019年經濟社會發展總體要求和政策取向
II. Economic and Social Development in 2019: Overall Requirements and Policy Directions

今年是新中國成立70周年，是全面建成小康社會、實現第一個百年奮斗目標的關鍵之年。做好政府工作，要在以習近平同志為核心的黨中央堅強領導下，以習近平新時代中國特色社會主義思想為指導，全面貫徹黨的十九大和十九屆二中、三中全會精神，統籌推進“五位一體”總體布局，協調推進“四個全面”戰略布局，堅持穩中求進工作總基調，堅持新發展理念，堅持推動高質量發展，堅持以供給側結構性改革為主線，堅持深化市場化改革、擴大高水平開放，加快建設現代化經濟體系，繼續打好三大攻堅戰，著力激發微觀主體活力，創新和完善宏觀調控，統籌推進穩增長、促改革、調結構、惠民生、防風險、保穩定工作，保持經濟運行在合理區間，進一步穩就業、穩金融、穩外貿、穩外資、穩投資、穩預期，提振市場信心，增強人民群眾獲得感、幸福感、安全感，保持經濟持續健康發展和社會大局穩定，為全面建成小康社會收官打下決定性基礎，以優異成績慶祝中華人民共和國成立70周年。
This year is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. It will be a crucial year for us as we endeavor to achieve the first Centenary Goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. To fulfill the work of government, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, we must:
? follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era;
? implement fully the guiding principles of the Party’s 19th National Congress and the second and third plenary sessions of its 19th Central Committee;
? pursue coordinated progress in the five-sphere integrated plan;
? pursue balanced progress in the four-pronged comprehensive strategy;
? adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability;
? continue to apply the new development philosophy;
? continue to work for high-quality development;
? continue to pursue supply-side structural reform as our main task;
? continue to deepen market-orientated reforms and expand high-standard opening up;
? work faster to modernize the economy;
? continue the three critical battles;
? invigorate micro entities;
? explore innovations in and improve macro regulation;
? make coordinated efforts to maintain stable growth, advance reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, guard against risks, and ensure stability;
? keep major economic indicators within an appropriate range;
? take further steps to ensure stable employment, a stable financial sector, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable domestic investment, and stable expectations;
? boost market confidence;
? enable people to feel more satisfied, happy, and secure; and
? sustain healthy economic development and maintain social stability.
By doing the above, we will create the pivotal underpinning for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and celebrate with outstanding accomplishments the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic.

綜合分析國內外形勢，今年我國發展面臨的環境更復雜更嚴峻，可以預料和難以預料的風險挑戰更多更大，要做好打硬仗的充分準備。困難不容低估，信心不可動搖，干勁不能松懈。我國發展仍處于重要戰略機遇期，擁有足夠的韌性、巨大的潛力和不斷迸發的創新活力，人民群眾追求美好生活的愿望十分強烈。我們有戰勝各種困難挑戰的堅定意志和能力，經濟長期向好趨勢沒有也不會改變。
A full analysis of developments in and outside China shows that in pursuing development this year, we will face a graver and more complicated environment as well as risks and challenges, foreseeable and otherwise, that are greater in number and size. We must be fully prepared for a tough struggle. The difficulties we face must not be underestimated, our confidence must not be weakened, and the energy we bring to our work must not be allowed to wane. China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development and has ample resilience, enormous potential, and great creativity to unleash. The longing of our people for a better life is strong. We have the unshakable will and the ability needed to prevail over difficulties and challenges of any kind, and our economic fundamentals are sound and will remain sound over the long term.

今年經濟社會發展的主要預期目標是：國內生產總值增長6%－6.5%；城鎮新增就業1100萬人以上，城鎮調查失業率5.5%左右，城鎮登記失業率4.5%以內；居民消費價格漲幅3%左右；國際收支基本平衡，進出口穩中提質；宏觀杠桿率基本穩定，金融財政風險有效防控；農村貧困人口減少1000萬以上，居民收入增長與經濟增長基本同步；生態環境進一步改善，單位國內生產總值能耗下降3%左右，主要污染物排放量繼續下降。上述主要預期目標，體現了推動高質量發展要求，符合我國發展實際，與全面建成小康社會目標相銜接，是積極穩妥的。實現這些目標，需要付出艱苦努力。
With the above in mind, the main projected targets for economic and social development this year are set as follows:
? GDP growth of 6–6.5 percent
? Over 11 million new urban jobs, a surveyed urban unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, and a registered urban unemployment rate within 4.5 percent
? CPI increase of around 3 percent
? A basic equilibrium in the balance of payments, and stable, better-structured imports and exports
? A macro leverage ratio that is basically stable, and effective prevention and control of financial and fiscal risks
? A reduction of over 10 million in the rural poor population
? Personal income growth that is basically in step with economic growth
? A further improvement in the environment
? A drop of around 3 percent in energy consumption per unit of GDP
? Continued reductions in the discharge of major pollutants
The above projected targets are ambitious but realistic—they represent our aim of promoting high-quality development, are in keeping with the current realities of China’s development, and are aligned with the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. But to realize these goals we need to redouble our efforts.

要正確把握宏觀政策取向，繼續實施積極的財政政策和穩健的貨幣政策，實施就業優先政策，加強政策協調配合，確保經濟運行在合理區間，促進經濟社會持續健康發展。
We will ensure that the right direction is set for the pursuit of our macro policies. We will continue to pursue a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, implement an employment-first policy, and strengthen the coordination between these policies to keep major economic indicators within an appropriate range and sustain healthy economic and social development.

積極的財政政策要加力提效。今年赤字率擬按2.8%安排，比去年預算高0.2個百分點；財政赤字2.76萬億元，其中中央財政赤字1.83萬億元，地方財政赤字9300億元。適度提高赤字率，綜合考慮了財政收支、專項債券發行等因素，也考慮為應對今后可能出現的風險留出政策空間。今年財政支出超過23萬億元，增長6.5%。中央對地方均衡性轉移支付增長10.9%。改革完善縣級基本財力保障機制，緩解困難地區財政運轉壓力，決不讓基本民生保障出問題。
We will pursue a proactive fiscal policy with greater intensity and enhance its performance. Deficit-to-GDP ratio this year is projected at 2.8 percent, a 0.2-percentage-point increase over that of last year. The budgetary deficit is projected at 2.76 trillion yuan, with a central government deficit of 1.83 trillion yuan and a local government deficit of 0.93 trillion yuan. In moderately increasing the deficit-to-GDP ratio, we have given full consideration to factors such as government revenue and expenditure and the issuance of special bonds; we have also taken into account the need to leave policy space to address risks that could arise in the future.Government expenditure is budgeted at over 23 trillion yuan, a 6.5 percent increase. The central government’s transfer payments to local governments for equalizing access to basic public services will increase by 10.9 percent. We will reform and improve the mechanism for ensuring basic fiscal capacity at the county level, ease the pressure of budgetary constraints faced by some localities, and make certain that people’s basic living needs are met.

穩健的貨幣政策要松緊適度。廣義貨幣M2和社會融資規模增速要與國內生產總值名義增速相匹配，以更好滿足經濟運行保持在合理區間的需要。在實際執行中，既要把好貨幣供給總閘門，不搞“大水漫灌”，又要靈活運用多種貨幣政策工具，疏通貨幣政策傳導渠道，保持流動性合理充裕，有效緩解實體經濟特別是民營和小微企業融資難融資貴問題，防范化解金融風險。深化利率市場化改革，降低實際利率水平。完善匯率形成機制，保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩定。
Our prudent monetary policy will be eased or tightened to the right degree. Increases in M2 money supply and aggregate financing should be in keeping with nominal GDP growth to keep major indicators within an appropriate range.In implementation, we will ensure the valve on aggregate monetary supply is well controlled and refrain from using a deluge of stimulus policies; but will also use flexibly a variety of monetary policy instruments to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, maintain reasonably sufficient liquidity, effectively mitigate difficulties faced in the real economy, especially by private enterprises and small and micro businesses, in accessing affordable financing, and forestall and defuse financial risks. We will deepen reforms to strengthen the market’s role in setting interest rates and lower real interest rates. We will improve the exchange rate mechanism and keep the RMB exchange rate generally stable and at an adaptive and balanced level.

就業優先政策要全面發力。就業是民生之本、財富之源。今年首次將就業優先政策置于宏觀政策層面，旨在強化各方面重視就業、支持就業的導向。當前和今后一個時期，我國就業總量壓力不減、結構性矛盾凸顯，新的影響因素還在增加，必須把就業擺在更加突出位置。穩增長首要是為保就業。今年城鎮新增就業要在實現預期目標的基礎上，力爭達到近幾年的實際規模，既保障城鎮勞動力就業，也為農業富余勞動力轉移就業留出空間。只要就業穩、收入增，我們就更有底氣。
An employment-first policy will be pursued with full force. Employment is the cornerstone of wellbeing, and the wellspring of wealth. This year, for the first time, we are elevating the employment-first policy to the status of a macro policy. This is to increase society-wide attention to employment and support for it. Both in the immediate future and for some time to come, the pressure on aggregate job creation will continue unabated, the related structural issues will become more pronounced, and new factors that affect employment will continue to grow. All this means we must give greater priority to increasing employment. Maintaining stable growth, first and foremost, is to ensure employment. This year, on top of the urban job creation target, we will work to reach the actual employment figures of the past few years so as to ensure employment for the urban workforce while creating nonagricultural employment opportunities for the surplus rural workforce. With stable employment and increasing incomes, we can continue to be fully confident.

要繼續堅持以供給側結構性改革為主線，在“鞏固、增強、提升、暢通”八個字上下功夫。更多采取改革的辦法，更多運用市場化、法治化手段，鞏固“三去一降一補”成果，增強微觀主體活力，提升產業鏈水平，暢通國民經濟循環，推動經濟高質量發展。
We will continue to pursue supply-side structural reform as our main task, focusing on consolidating, strengthening, upgrading, and ensuring unimpeded flows: we will use more reforms and means in accordance with market principles and law to consolidate the gains made in the five priority tasks; to strengthen the dynamism of micro entities; to upgrade industrial chains; and to ensure unimpeded flows in the economy, thus moving toward high-quality development.

要繼續打好三大攻堅戰，精準發力、務求實效。防范化解重大風險要強化底線思維，堅持結構性去杠桿，防范金融市場異常波動，穩妥處理地方政府債務風險，防控輸入性風險。精準脫貧要堅持現行標準，聚焦深度貧困地區和特殊貧困群體，加大攻堅力度，提高脫貧質量。污染防治要聚焦打贏藍天保衛戰等重點任務，統籌兼顧、標本兼治，使生態環境質量持續改善。
We will continue the three critical battles and adopt precise measures to deliver solid outcomes.
To forestall and defuse major risks, we should be clear about potential dangers, continue structural deleveraging, forestall abnormal financial market fluctuations, deal prudently with local government debt risk, and guard against and control externally-generated risks. We will intensify precision poverty alleviation efforts in accordance with current standards, with the focus on deeply impoverished areas and the most vulnerable groups to deliver solid outcomes. In addressing pollution, we will focus on major priorities such as the fight to keep our skies blue, take a holistic approach, address both symptoms and root causes, and make continuous improvements to the environment.

做好今年政府工作，要注重把握好以下關系。
For the government to deliver this year, we need to get the following relationships right.

一要統籌好國內與國際的關系，凝心聚力辦好自己的事。我國仍處于并將長期處于社會主義初級階段，仍是世界最大發展中國家。發展是解決我國一切問題的基礎和關鍵，必須牢牢扭住經濟建設這個中心，毫不動搖堅持發展是硬道理、發展應該是科學發展和高質量發展的戰略思想，不斷解放和發展社會生產力。在國際形勢復雜多變的背景下，我們要保持戰略定力，按確定的目標和部署推進工作，更好利用國際國內兩個市場兩種資源，敢于應對挑戰，善于化危為機，牢牢把握發展主動權。
First, we need to handle in a holistic way the relationship between domestic and international issues, and focus on running our own affairs well. China is still and will long remain in the primary stage of socialism; and it continues to be the world’s largest developing country. Development is the foundation of and key to solving all our country’s problems. We must pursue with dedication the central task of economic development, never falter in our commitment to the strategic thinking that development is of paramount importance and that it should be sound and of a high quality, and continue to unleash and develop productive forces. Against the backdrop of a complex and fast-changing international environment, we must maintain strategic focus and carry out work in accordance with the goals and plans already set. We should make better use of both international and domestic markets and resources, face challenges squarely, turn risks into opportunities, and remain firm in our commitment to pursuing development.

二要平衡好穩增長與防風險的關系，確保經濟持續健康發展。長期積累的諸多風險隱患必須加以化解，但要遵循規律，講究方式方法，按照堅定、可控、有序、適度要求，在發展中逐步化解，堅決避免發生系統性、區域性風險。在當前經濟下行壓力加大情況下，出臺政策和工作舉措要有利于穩預期、穩增長、調結構，防控風險要把握好節奏和力度，防止緊縮效應疊加放大，決不能讓經濟運行滑出合理區間。同時，也不能只顧眼前，采取損害長期發展的短期強刺激政策，產生新的風險隱患。
Second, we need to achieve the right balance in the relationship between maintaining stable growth and guarding against risks, to ensure sustained, healthy economic development. The many risks and potential problems that have built up over the years demand stronger mitigating action, but in doing so we need to observe objective laws and take the right approach. Our approach must be firm, controllable, and systematic, and it should be applied with the right degree of intensity. We need to defuse risks step by step in the course of pursuing development and decisively forestall any systemic or regional risks. Against the backdrop of mounting downward pressure on the economy, the policies and measures we adopt should ensure stable expectations, stable growth, and structural adjustments. In working to forestall and control risks, we need to get the pace and intensity right. We should see that the effects of tightening are not amplified, and we must never allow economic indicators to slide out of the appropriate range. At the same time, we must not attend only to immediate concerns or adopt short-term strong stimulus policies that will end up undermining long-term development and generating new risks.

三要處理好政府與市場的關系，依靠改革開放激發市場主體活力。只要市場主體有活力，就能增強內生發展動力、頂住經濟下行壓力。要大力推進改革開放，加快建立統一開放、競爭有序的現代市場體系，放寬市場準入，加強公正監管，打造法治化、國際化、便利化的營商環境，讓各類市場主體更加活躍。
Third, we need to balance the relationship between government and market, and energize market entities through reform and opening up. As long as market entities are energized, we can boost the internal forces driving development and withstand the downward pressure on the economy. We must work hard to advance reform and opening up, speed up the establishment of a unified and open, competitive and orderly modern market system, relax restrictions on market access, ensure impartial regulation, and create a business environment based on rule of law that is internationalized and enabling, in order to energize market entities.

從根本上說，市場活力和社會創造力源于億萬人民積極性的發揮。要堅持以人民為中心的發展思想，盡力而為、量力而行，切實保障基本民生，推動解決重點民生問題，促進社會公平正義，讓人民過上好日子。中國人民勤勞智慧，具有無限的創新創造潛能，只要充分釋放出來，中國的發展就一定會有更為廣闊空間。
Ultimately, market vitality and social creativity stem from the initiative of hundreds of millions of people being put into action. We must stay true to the vision of people-centered development and do everything within our capacity to meet people’s basic needs, resolve key problems affecting living standards, promote social fairness and justice, and help our people achieve better lives. The Chinese are an industrious and talented people and possess boundless potential for innovation and creativity. All we need to do is unleash that potential and the space for China’s development going forward will doubtless be vast.